🧠 The Orange Pelican: Between Big Deals and Financial Inclusion
Why does this matter right now?
While several studies show how technological development and the explosion of e-commerce have consistently shaped consumer habits over the past decade, we must also acknowledge that we now live in a knowledge economy. In it, we're exposed to thousands of daily stimuli — or as behavioral economists call them, nudges — designed to unconsciously (or intentionally) influence our purchasing decisions. 🧲🛍️
In June, Mexico kicks off two of the country’s most relevant promotional seasons — Hot Sale and the iconic Orange Pelican summer campaign. So this is the perfect moment to take a breather and ask:
Are we making conscious, value-driven buying decisions?
Do we really need what we're about to buy? Or should we apply the 72-hour rule — where impulse and desire often fade with time?
Is this a zero-sum game? Who really wins (and loses) during these discount frenzies?
One year after the passing of Daniel Kahneman — one of the thinkers who has influenced me most — it’s worth remembering that many of our choices aren’t rational. They’re quick, lazy shortcuts by a mental system that tries to save energy... even when it costs us money. 🤯💸
Seasonalities and the avalanche of promotions
The so-called “successful” Hot Sale was launched in 2014 by AMVO (the Mexican Association of Online Sales). Since then, it’s grown not just in volume, but in reach — expanding beyond electronics into categories like travel, insurance, mortgages, and even financial products. The "success" of Hot Sale really depends on who you ask: each player interprets its benefits or the dilution of margins differently. 📉📈
At the same time, the still-iconic summer campaign of the country’s most recognizable pelican — promoted by one of Mexico's largest bottlers — continues to drive one of the busiest shopping seasons of the year. An astonishing 30% of annual sales in FMCG categories (such as wine and liquor, snacks, cereal, and toilet paper) occur over just a few weekends. 🧻🍷
In this context, retailers fight inch-by-inch for visibility, conversion, and wallet share — while consumers chase the best bargain per square meter.
🔬 What does the science say?
The Impact of Digital Economy on Consumer Behavior (Wu, 2023): Uses game theory to analyze winners and losers in high-consumption promo cycles. Open finance was supposed to benefit users — but in deep-discount scenarios, those with insider data dominate. Read more
Mobile Payment, Digital Inclusive Finance, and Residents' Consumption (Li & Wang, 2024): Digital finance and mobile payments increase access and formal inclusion — but also drive impulse spending. This is particularly complex in economies where informality accounts for more than half of GDP.
Is There an Impact of Digital Transformation on Consumer Behaviour? (Gutiérrez, 2023): Shows how digitalization increases participation in promos... but also heightens financial stress, especially in Latin America.
The Rise of Digital Finance: Financial Inclusion or Debt Trap? (Yue et al.): A provocative study questioning whether digital credit is closing gaps or digging deeper holes.
Consumer behavior: System 1, System 2, discounts and biases
Daniel Kahneman described two cognitive systems:
System 1, “the lazy one”: fast, automatic, emotional.
System 2, “the analyst”: slow, deliberate, rational.
Promotions are designed to light up System 1. They create urgency, scarcity, FOMO — “last day to save!” — and that makes it harder to activate our more rational System 2, especially when buying things we don’t really need (like insurance, savings plans or big-ticket items). ⏳🔥
Enter the hyperbolic discounting bias — our tendency to choose smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed ones. That 30% off today? It might cost you 100% in interest later. 🤷♂️
That said, today’s consumers aren’t that easy to trick. How many of us don’t do a quick search on Google, Amazon or Mercado Libre before buying something we didn’t even know we “needed”? We're just a few clicks away from exiting the conversion funnel if something doesn’t feel right.
And that’s a big shift. Once upon a time, 100 out of 100 customers walking into a store walked out with a purchase. Now? Many use the physical store as validation or rejection of an online purchase they’re considering. The fashion industry knows this better than anyone. 🛒🧠
Read more on hyperbolic discounting in this NBER paper
🌀 The paradox of digital credit: inclusion or risk?
Thanks to smartphones and fintech, anyone can access offers, products, and services in minutes. This has helped democratize access and fostered financial inclusion. 💳📲
But it’s also removed friction that once gave us pause — like having to leave home, carry cash, or physically compare prices. Now, shopping is so frictionless it feels automatic.
And that’s the slippery slope: the line between inclusion and over-indebtedness is thinner than ever. ⚖️
Here’s the twist: in a world where lending is easy and collecting is the hard part, consumers are being bombarded with promos. Over 90% of online offers are tied to Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) schemes — with or without interest — depending on the risk appetite of the lender and the size of their financial backers. 🏦💥
According to The Rise of Digital Finance: Financial Inclusion or Debt Trap? (Yue, Korkmaz, Yin & Zhou), these technologies expand financial access. But in developing countries, where financial literacy is low, they may widen inequality rather than bridge it. ⚠️
Case in point: just last week, one of the biggest neobanks in the region announced a brand-new interest rate for credit card usage — an “attractive” 139%. And if you want to invest your money in their financial products? A generous 9%. 📉💸
Let’s be honest: these new fintechs are moving from one-size-fits-all (“if you can pay, great”) to hyper-personalized models. Your financial behavior today and yesterday helps define your access and terms tomorrow. Generative AI models are betting big on this.
We’re still early in the game — but AI-based credit scoring systems are gaining traction. Will they foster better financial habits and build long-term value? Or just repackage the same traps with better UX? 🤖🔁
Final thoughts: the power (still) lies with the consumer 🧠
Promotional campaigns like Hot Sale or the summer pelican blitz aren’t inherently good or bad. They’re just tools.
The danger begins when consumers face them without clarity, planning, or awareness of their own financial habits.
Financial education isn’t optional anymore. It’s a shared responsibility — across consumers, companies, and the entire consumption ecosystem — to foster decision-making that protects people and the economy in an era of hyper-speed, hyper-targeted, hyper-everything. ⚙️🧭
Maybe we can’t shut off the ads. But we can turn on our critical thinking. And that, in memory of Kahneman, is already a powerful start. 💡